Hello, I hope you are well.
I’ve been focused on writing to a different, unknown, and uninterested audience while you’ve been sitting here, curious as to how I may fill your inbox with alpha and insight. But, I’m assuming you’ve probably started to realize that neither I, nor someone with more experience, can do so. Information is almost worthless in this game if you can’t synthesize it properly. So, I’ll skip the intellectual sounding bullshit and get straight to the vehemence.
Crosswind has always been about exactly what it sounds like. The invisible, unmeasurable, and undecided force that you have to lean against. The pilot coming in for a windy landing, who is forced to turn the autopilot off in exchange for manhandling the large metal machine onto the landing strip. Yes, this represents the market, as does everything, reflecting itself back at the financial system in an attempt to make monetary sense of a world that leaves money in your account and no dirt under your fingernails.
I am not a classically trained financial analyst, and don’t aspire to be. I try to take a high altitude view, and be wrong quickly. That’s it. I’ve done my best to understand history, and remain rational in the face of greed and fear.
I know what some of you may be thinking, but I don’t have some big doomsday prediction for you. Ending a bad thing isn’t bad, it’s progress. So, let’s get to the meat of what I’m thinking. In an economy of goods and services, the “services” portion of the economy has outpaced the “goods” portion of the economy in an unsustainable way. I think I outlined this fittingly in my “modern prosperity” essay, and don’t feel the need to touch on the subject much more. Our eyes, as well as the feds, were bigger than our stomachs. Our follower counts, opinions, reach, intellect, and sustainability, were also out of touch with reality. We deserve a heavy reversion to the mean, and I promised you we’ll get it. The market holds a grudge longer than the most bitter old man you’ve met.
Well, as I said, I don’t have much to add. Be careful out there.
I hope we’re still friends.